Recently updated on February 17th, 2020
NBA public betting refers to the overall wagering trends surrounding a match. For example, in 2019, the Golden State Warriors were favored to win the NBA Championship. Part of the reason most US sports betting sites favored the Warriors was that 70% of all spread bets on the NBA made at sportsbooks over the last three years were favor of the Warriors.
Many bettors often take the information gathered from viewing the NBA public betting consensus and make decisions based on it. Most believe that following NBA public betting trends is a surefire way to make better bets regardless of whether you are betting with or against the public. In the situation outlined above, maybe one would have been able to predict that the Warriors were not what they used to be without Kevin Durant.
If you would like to find out more about making NBA public consensus bets, make sure to stick around. Below we go through all you need to know about NBA betting public. We also provide a list of the best online gambling sites in USA for basketball bets for you to test out your theories.
NBA Public Betting Links
- Best Sportsbooks for NBA Basketball Public Betting
- How NBA Betting Against the Public Works – Who is the Public Betting on NBA?
- NBA Basketball Public Betting Trends Explained
- Public NBA Betting Advantages USA
- Drawbacks of Following Public Betting Trends NBA
The NBA betting against the public strategy (or fading the public) involves finding out the public’s favorite for a particular bet and then betting against it. For example, with money lines, most US bettors may choose to bet on teams that have been on long winning streaks.Sports betting sites adjust their lines according to how the public is betting. So, let’s say the Milwaukee Bucks are playing against the Boston Celtics and most bettors have selected the Celtics to win this one, the line will be adjusted so that a bet on the Bucks pays out more. Smart bettors try to look for lines in which it appears that the public may have made a bad choice so as to win the most money possible.
So, if you’re still a little confused about how this all works, perhaps it’s better to think of it in that there are two types of bettors: casual and serious. Now, casual NBA betting gamblers (who are also referred to as squares, don’t really bet all that often and when they do, they often do it for the fun of it. Often, they also stick to betting on big events like the NBA Championship or the NFL.
However, serious bettors are more strategic in their decisions and make calculated bets. They post winning records on a regular basis and have in the past predicted wins that many would not have seen coming due to a close analysis of stats.
Now, there is a general rule in the sports betting world – the bigger the event, the larger the number of square bettors in the pool. The idea is that inexperienced bettors are simply going to pick the favorite to win and won’t be looking at any outside influencing factors. For example, before the 2019 NBA Championship, the Golden State Warriors had made it to five consecutive finals and had won three. Why would the Toronto Raptors – a team that had never before made it to that stage of the game – win?
Well, sharp bettors would have been able to tell you that the team had been in decline from their first NBA Championship win in 2015. In 2019, the Warriors had won the fewest games they had done in the past five seasons and Kevin Durant who had been Finals MVP for the past two years was not available for the game.
NBA Betting Percentages – Useful or Not?
A lot of people argue that NBA public betting percentages aren’t actually all that useful. It is suggested that if this information is so useful, why do most sports betting sites publicly give it away to anyone who clicks on a betting option?
We’re going to be honest with you, betting against the public is just like any other sports betting strategy – sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t. This is true for the same reasons that computer picks don’t work every single time either – human unpredictability. The stats may suggest that the general public is wrong but then the team you bet against still wins. There is no way of getting around this unfortunately.
The only way to ensure that your public bet NBA option is not misguided and stands a better chance of winning is to put in the research to back the decision up.
We recommend all bettors follow public betting trends even if they don’t intend on betting against the public. There are two major reasons for this:
- Firstly, this information helps gamblers make better bets. They get added information about the upcoming game and are able to verify whether or not their decision is correct by looking into why their choice may or may not differ with that of the public.
- Secondly, bettors get an opportunity to get in on a reverse-line movement before it happens if they’re lucky. As we stated above, sometimes the public favors one team to beat another simply because they seem like the likely winner.
Just as with advantages, there are two major reasons you should maybe avoid trying to constantly bet against the public. These are the following:
- Sportsbooks don’t like sharp bettors and many have rules to ban bettors who always make bets on the underdog that always seemingly win. So, you could get banned.
- Sometimes, the favorite is a favorite for a reason. Don’t overthink it all; do your research and don’t just blindly bet against the favorite.
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