Ines | February 18, 2020 | Updated on: December 20th, 2023
NFL public betting refers to the overall betting trends regarding a particular match up. For example, when the finalists of Super Bowl LIII were decided, many online gambling sites initially named the Los Angeles Rams favorites, but public betting trends led to the New England Patriots taking that title before the game was played. Many bettors believe that understanding public opinion regarding a particular match will help in making more informed predictions.
Overall, gamblers get to see whether the public is looking to bet on the favorite or underdog, along with how the overall match will playout in terms of score and other factors. There are various different strategies used to try and take advantage of public betting lines. The most popular is probably betting against the public, also known as fading the public. The NFL public betting system tries to take advantage of the fact that the majority of the public with place bets without making an informed decision.
Below we have a look at how bettors can use NFL public betting consensus percentages to boost their winnings by betting against them. So, read on and learn how to bet against the public effectively.
Best NFL Betting Sites 2023
What You’ll Find In Our NFL Betting Against The Public Guide
- How Fading the Public Works
- NFL Public Betting Trends – Type of Bettors Explained
- Who is the Public Betting on NFL – Taking Advantage of Reverse Line Movements
- Cons of Betting Against the Public in NFL
How Fading the Public Works
When you choose to use the fading the public strategy, you are choosing to bet against public opinion or to use a more technical term public betting trends NFL. Usually, the public bets on a favored team or home team.
When bets are made, sports betting sites adjust their lines to attract bets to the opposite side of where the public is wagering. This will be an indication of who the public is betting on and the right time to catch a line for fading the public. However, this is not a foolproof strategy, and it does not guarantee a win.
NFL Public Betting Trends – Type of Bettors Explained
In sports betting, there are two different kinds of bettors. There are the casual bettors who are inexperienced (also known as the “squares”), and then there are the experienced bettors (also known as the “sharps”.) The sharp bettors generally post winning bet records and aren’t always appreciated by sportsbooks.
There is a rule that says the larger the number of bettors taking part in betting on a particular event, the larger the square category in public betting trends. When you want to make better bets, it is good to use past season NFL public betting charts to help you find trends. More experienced bettors love placing their bets on the underdog, while the inexperienced bettors will wager on the most popular teams of the season.
Are NFL Betting Percentages Useful?
There is a little bit of a debate over whether NFL public betting data is actually useful or not. Many argue the point that if it was so useful, why would sportsbooks openly give away information about betting trends on their sites?
Well, to be quite frank, it is just like any other betting strategy. Sometimes, you’ll be lucky enough to place winning bets and, other times, you won’t. In general, the logic is sound in the fact that events like the Super Bowl tend to entice more inexperienced bettors to place wagers. These are bettors who don’t necessarily look at the stats the same way experienced bettors do.
But then there are also times where blindly betting against the public just leads to a rather predictable loss because it was pretty clear that one team was going to win. Overall, we just recommend that bettors use public betting percentages NFL as a small part of their larger strategy.
Check Out Our Other NFL Guides
Who is the Public Betting on NFL – Taking Advantage of Reverse Line Movements
So many bettors want to know whos the public betting on NFL simply because it sounds like a good idea to bet against the public. As previously mentioned though, it is always best to do your research first before committing to a wager. It is also good to go over the past seasons’ data to see an overview of recent NFL public betting trends.
Sometimes, bettors who have done the research are lucky enough to get to take advantage of reverse line movements. These are cases in which the sportsbook sets a favorite and then overwhelming betting trends lead to roles changing.
In the Super Bowl LIII example, many sportsbooks believed that the Los Angeles Rams had the edge going in. The team had lost fewer games on the road to the final and had shown few issues with scoring. However, the public felt the experience of the New England Patriots made it more likely that the team would win.
Bettors who were able to get bets on the New England Patriots before the trends were registered were able to take advantage of the odds set on the team who would later be declared favorites closer to the match date.
As it can take as much as a week for line changes to register on NFL games, there is much to take advantage for the attentive bettor.
Cons of Betting Against the Public in NFL
There are unfortunately a few pitfalls related to constantly fading the public. Some of the most prominent include the following:
- As previously mentioned, sportsbooks don’t really like sharp bettors, which is unsurprising seeing as they would like to payout less. Betting against the public every now and again shouldn’t get you in trouble. However, if a sportsbook sees you’re on a winning streak that consists mostly of sharp bets, they’re likely to ban you.
- Then, as we also did state above, it is important to do research about a match before making a wager. All too often, bettors think fading the public just means betting on the team that isn’t the favorite. But, that’s incorrect. Ultimately, sometimes the favorites are the favorites for a reason, regardless of how many inexperienced bettors wagered on the game. If you blindly bet against the favorite, you may really be doing yourself in due to negligence.